The Week in Review: April 4, 2022
Job Growth, Job Openings
The two graphics below help summarize today’s job market.
Data Source: U.S.BLS Mar 2022
Data Source: U.S. BLS, NBER Shaded areas mark recessions Feb 2022
Friday, the U.S. BLS reported nonfarm payrolls rose a healthy 431,000 in March, down from February’s strong pace of 750,000. Figure 1 is a three-month average of the monthly change in payrolls, which helps smooth away any statistical anomalies.
Over the last nine months, growth has been impressive, with the 3-month average holding within a range of 500,000—650,000. One important reason growth has been strong: a record number of job openings.
Put more simply, job openings are a prerequisite for job growth, and openings are high.
As Figure 2 illustrates, openings are far ahead of what we saw prior to the Covid lockdowns and ensuing recession.
The huge number of job openings are helping to generate employment growth. Yet, strong job growth hasn’t made a dent in openings, as businesses struggle to fill empty positions.
As the economy expands, businesses require more workers, and open positions remain extremely high—above 11 million in four of the last five months.
If you have any questions or concerns, please don’t hesitate to let me know.
Two for the Road
In the previous eight rate-hiking cycles, the S&P 500 was higher one year after the first increase every single time. The average gain during those periods -- 10.8%. - Yahoo! news, March 14, 2022
On average, American doctors give their patients an average of 11 seconds to describe their issues before interrupting them. - Study Finds, February 2, 2022
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