The Week in Review: December 28, 2020

What Is in the $900 Billion COVID-19 Stimulus Bill?

Last week, Congress passed a $900 billion COVID-relief and $1.4 trillion government-funding package that provides pandemic aid and funds federal agencies through September 2021. 

It’s a bill that runs over 5,000 pages.

Zeroing in on COVID relief, the measure will provide another round of direct payments, enhanced unemployment benefits, education funding, and aid to sectors still reeling from the economic fallout of the pandemic. 

Key components:

  • $325 billion for small businesses

  • $166 billion in direct checks

  • $120 billion in unemployment benefits

  • $82 billion for schools

  • $69 billion for vaccines, testing, and tracing

  • $45 billion for transportation

  • $25 billion for rental assistance and more (Source: Wall Street Journal)

Businesses

The Paycheck Protection Program has been renewed with changes. Existing borrowers may apply for a loan as long as they have 300 or fewer employees and can demonstrate they had a 25% drop in sales this year versus the same quarter in 2019.

First-time borrowers will be subject to the program’s original eligibility rules, which allowed for loans up to 500 employees and no requirement to show a loss in revenue.

Borrowers are required to spend at least 60% of the funds on payroll to receive full forgiveness. The additional 40% may be used on eligible expenses.

The bill includes $15 billion to cover airline salaries through the end of March, allowing tens of thousands of airline employees to return to work, at least for a few months. It also includes $15 billion for independent movie theaters, live entertainment venues, and cultural institutions.

Direct Payments 

Direct economic relief via stimulus checks of $600 will be provided for individuals making up to $75,000 per year. Couples earnings up to $150,000 will receive $1,200 checks, with an extra $600 for dependent children who are under 17 years old. As with the CARES Act, payments are phased about above the income limits.

Jobless Aid

Workers are eligible for an additional $300 per week in federal unemployment benefits, down from $600 in the CARES Act. The self-employed and freelancers are included. The bill also provides extended benefits, up to 50 weeks. Most states provide standard benefits of 26 weeks.

Sources: Wall Street Journal, NCSL National Conference of State Legislatures Covid-19 Economic Relief Bill. 

Trump Objects

Following the bill’s passage, President Trump said the direct payments are not enough and insisted $2,000 per person be provided. It’s unclear whether he’ll veto the bill. If he does, Congress could attempt to override, as the act was passed overwhelmingly. He could also choose not to sign the bill and let it die, which is called a pocket veto. 

You see, a president has 10 days to review a bill. If he doesn’t sign it, it becomes law. If Congress adjourns during the 10-day period and it remains unsigned, the bill dies. Next year, the new Congress would need to take up the measure or make changes.

Another option: Congress may also pass a separate bill that provides for additional direct payments. Thus far, market reaction to the president’s objections has been muted.

Chart.jpg

This has simply been a high-level overview of key provisions in the stimulus package. While few analysts expect another downturn in the economy, growth has slowed amid the spike in COVID cases, and most believe new support is needed. The debate, however, centers on how much help Washington should provide.

If you have any questions or concerns, feel free to reach out to me, Will, or Tyler.

Two for the Road 

  1. Tesla’s market cap has increased by more than $500 billion in 2020. The company is now worth as much as the world’s nine largest car manufacturers. —CNBC Monday, December 14, 2020

  2. Roughly 80% of New York City’s income tax revenue comes from 17% of its residents. If just 5% of those families decided to move away, it would cost the city $933 million in lost tax revenue. —City&State New York, December 9, 2020

This commentary reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of the Stordahl Capital Management, Inc. employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Stordahl Capital Management, Inc. or performance returns of any Stordahl Capital Management, Inc. Investments client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing in this piece constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Accessing websites through links directs you away from our website. Stordahl Capital Management is not responsible for errors or omissions in the material on third party websites and does not necessarily approve of or endorse the information provided. Users who gain access to third party websites may be subject to the copyright and other restrictions on use imposed by those providers and assume responsibility and risk from the use of those websites. Please note that trading instructions through email, fax or voicemail will not be taken. Your identity and timely retrieval of instructions cannot be guaranteed. Stordahl Capital Management, Inc. manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

1. The Dow Jones Industrials Average is an unmanaged index of 30 major companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
2. The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
3. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 larger companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
4. The Global Dow is an unmanaged index composed of stocks of 150 top companies. It cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
5. CME Group front-month contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.
6. CME Group continuous contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results.

Stordahl Capital Management